Debka Friday June 29, 2012 Tammuz 9, 5772

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DEBKAfile Special Report June 29, 2012, 11:02 AM (GMT+02:00)
Turkey deploys anti-aircraft guns
Turkey deploys anti-aircraft guns

 

Syria is on a knife edge Friday, June 29 between a Western-Arab-Turkish military offensive in the next 48 hours and a big power accord to ward it off.DEBKAfile reports King Abdullah has put the Saudi military on high war alert. Turkey continued to reinforce armored strength on the Syrian border while Syria has deployed 170 tanks near Aleppo. Crucial talks in St. Petersburg between US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov could either avert or precipitate imminent military intervention.

 

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Obama Has Decided to Strike Iran 
Saudi and US-Jewish sources say October is the next dateline. Riyadh gets set. 
more
Putin Offers Israel Secret Conduit to Iran 
He will also broker ties with Turkey for a stake in Israeli oil 
more
10-point US Ultimatum for Morsi 
Obama’s road map for the Brotherhood’s rule of Egypt. 
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Headlines
Obama “reconsiders” military attack on Iran
DEBKAfile DEBKA-Net-Weekly
June 26, 2012, 10:28 AM (GMT+02:00)
Leon Panetta with Saudi intel chief Prince Moqrin
Leon Panetta with Saudi intel chief Prince Moqrin

 

In the wake of failed diplomacy, US President Barack Obama is in the process of “reconsidering” his decision to hold off on military action against Iran. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta was in Riyadh to sound out Saudi rulers on a combined US-GCC operation.  In its coming issue, out Friday, DEBKA-Net-Weekly explores the prospects of this operation, along with revelations about President Vladimir Putin’s talk with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. From Jerusalem, Putin issued his “most striking warning to Obama.”

To subscribe to DEBKA-Net-Weekly,click here.

 

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Assad is confined to palace by his Republican Guard
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
June 28, 2012, 11:13 AM (GMT+02:00)
A virtual prisoner in his own palace
A virtual prisoner in his own palace

 

DEBKAfile, citing Western intelligence sources, reports Thursday, June 28, that the Republican Guard battalion commander charged with the Syrian president’s security has kept Bashar Assad and his family shut away in his palace in what they call “partial siege" since last week. This officer decides whether they can come or go. It is not clear to whom he defers. “"Inside the palace, Assad and his family have become fearful enough to import tasters to check all the food and drink served them,” the sources say.

 

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Obama rebuffs Erdogan’s appeal to lead Turkey in Syria attack
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
June 27, 2012, 9:23 AM (GMT+02:00)
First Syrian opposition leader to visit country
First Syrian opposition leader to visit country

 

Another urgent bid for the US to lead an allied offensive against Syria’s ruling regime fell on deaf ears. It came Tuesday, June 26, from Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, who is spoiling for action over the Syrian shoot-down of a Turkish military plane last Friday. Obama turned him down and urged US, British, Turkish and French covert operations to continue. Erdogan is forced to resort to the strategy employed by Binyamin Netanyahu on a nuclear Iran - tough rhetoric accompanied by inaction.

 

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British forces in Syria, Assad presidential compound said under attack
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
June 26, 2012, 11:59 AM (GMT+02:00)
British special forces on field mission
British special forces on field mission

 

Unconfirmed first reports from British, French and Turkish sources say British special forces crossed from Turkey into northern Syria Tuesday, May 26, advancing up to 10 kilometers inside the country. Those sources also report heavy fighting around the Republican Guards compound guarding Bashar Assad's palace on Mount Qaisoun overlooking Damascus. This two-pronged assault on the Assad regime, if confirmed, began at the end of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Israel. It challenges his repeated objections to foreign intervention.

 

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Putin to Israel: Iran won't get a nuclear bomb. No need for an Israeli strike
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
June 25, 2012, 10:06 PM (GMT+02:00)
Vladimir Putin in Jerusalem
Vladimir Putin in Jerusalem

 

The high point of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s noteworthy 90-minute talk with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem Monday, June 25, was Putin’s firm assurance that Iran would not get a nuclear bomb. He stressed it would be against Russian interests,DEBKAfile reports exclusively. “We [Russians] know more about what is going on with Iran’s (nuclear) capabilities than the Americans,” he said, indicating that Israel would be better served spending in Moscow some of the time taken up by endless palaver with the Americans.

 

 

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Al Qaeda behind anti-Israel attacks from Gaza, Sinai. Egypt posts elite unit
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
June 24, 2012, 12:25 PM (GMT+02:00)
Members of Egypt's elite 999 anti-terror unit
Members of Egypt's elite 999 anti-terror unit

 

Al Qaeda infiltrators from Libya are spearheading much of this month’s anti-Israel violence from Sinai and the Gaza Strip - a dangerous development Israel, Hamas, Egypt and the US prefer to conceal. It appears to tie in with the arrival of al Qaeda’s ex-Iraq fighters in Syria as part of its leader's master plan. Deeply concerned to check the spillover from Libya into Egypt, Cairo has posted its elite counter-terrorist “999 unit” in El Arish, on Egypt’s border with the Gaza Strip and along the northern sector of its frontier with Israel.

 

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Newly-supplied Russian Pantsyr-1 anti-air missile used to down Turkish warplane
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
June 23, 2012, 8:41 PM (GMT+02:00)
Russian Pantsyr-1 air defense missile in Syria
Russian Pantsyr-1 air defense missile in Syria

 

Syria Friday shot down the Turkish Super Phantom jet with the sophisticated self-propelled medium range anti-air Pantsur-1 missile recently supplied by Russia. Short of time to master the improved missile system, the Syrian crews would have called on their Russian instructors to help launch them. DEBKAfile:  Moscow and Damascus may have decided to stop the almost daily Turkish air force flights over the Syrian coast for spying on Russian arms deliveries through the Russian bases of Tartus and Latakia.

 

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US & Russia Deploy in Syria – Double Prey for Al-Qaeda
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report 
June 19, 2012, 3:35 PM (GMT+02:00)

 

DEBKAfile postulates Syria’s division into spheres of influence as the big powers move in.

 

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US military intervention in Syria – “Not if but when”
DEBKAfile Special Report
June 16, 2012, 3:51 PM (GMT+02:00)

 

Amid the worsening violence in Syria, US official sources said Saturday, June 16, that US intervention was not a matter of ‘if’ but ‘when’ and defined its format as “Libya lite.”  Pentagon officials earlier reported a Russian contingent was on its way to Syria to guard the Russian base at Tartus. As the Syrian civil conflict mounted onto the plane of major power intervention, Maj. Gen. Robert Mood announced that the UN observer mission he heads had suspended activities and patrols.

 

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DEBKA-Net-Weekly    A sampling from past issues
The New al Qaeda May Decentralize
DEBKA-Net-Weekly  #539
May 4, 2012
John Brennan
John Brennan

 

Ayman al-Zawahiri is challenged by the Syrian jihadist ideologue Abu Musab al-Suri, who preaches the "multi-pede" concept which would end centralized control of the al Qaeda terrorism organiztion and distribute authority for independent decision-making among its franchises. Zawahiri is fighting back.

 

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Iran Plans a Low-Grade Nuclear Attack on Israel
DEBKA-Net-Weekly  #538
April 26, 2012
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

 

Israel’s war preparations are based on the estimate that by the end of 2012, Iran will be able to produce a crude nuclear device as well as a dirty bomb. It calculates as high the risk that Tehran will decide to use those devices for war against Israel in the short term and not wait until it has complete nuclear warhead ready for a ballistic missile.

 

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Iran Plays Obama’s Game to Win
DEBKA-Net-Weekly  #537
April 20, 2012
President Barack Obama and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
President Barack Obama and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

 

President Barack Obama's proposals are primed to pre-empt war as his first priority before even pre-empting a nuclear Iran. The deal he is offering Tehran will be hard to refuse because it virtually relieves its nuclear program of effective international oversight. Tehran is nonetheless holding out for an end to sanctions.

 

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Analysis
US military drills Day One after strike on Iran, deploys F-22s to Gulf
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
April 28, 2012, 11:12 AM (GMT+02:00)
USAF F-22s deployed to Persian Gulf
USAF F-22s deployed to Persian Gulf

 

US Navy, Air Force, ground, intelligence and special forces units based at home, in Europe and the Middle East, took part this week in a special exercise ordered by President Barack Obama to simulate reactions to a potential US/Israel strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, DEBKAfile reports. Advanced US stealth F-22 fighter bombers were also transferred to the Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE. Washington is thinking of attacking core elements of Iran’s nuclear program to weaken its hand in negotiations. 

 

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Gantz: IDF and other armies ready to strike Iran’s nuclear capabilities
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
April 26, 2012, 5:30 PM (GMT+02:00)
Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz meets top US soldier Gen. Martin Dempsey in Washington
Lt. Gen. Benny Gantz meets top US soldier Gen. Martin Dempsey in Washington

 

Israel Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu acted Thursday, April 26, to correct the damaging impression of divided and conflicting perceptions of the Iranian nuclear threat left by statements delivered in the last two days by himself and Defense Minster Ehud Barak. Israel’s chief of staff Gen. Benny Gantz rallied to the task. He commented Thursday that “other countries have readied their armed forces for a potential strike against Iran’s nuclear sites to keep Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons.”

 

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Tripoli clashes after direct orders from Assad to Lebanese army
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
May 14, 2012, 10:54 AM (GMT+02:00)
Lebanese Tripoli catches fire from Syrian conflict
Lebanese Tripoli catches fire from Syrian conflict

 

Bashar Assad has stepped in directly to halt the covert war his Western and Arab foes are waging against his regime through Lebanon. DEBKAfile’s military sources disclose he is now sending Lebanese army commanders direct orders for cutting arms, money, fighters and medical supplies to the rebels, especially in Homs. Last week, Lebanese Chief of Staff Gen. Jean Kahwagi was given a crude ultimatum: Take care of the Syrian rebels’ backers in Tripoli, or else the Syrian army will enter Lebanon and do the job.

 

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Russia, Iran set to counter US/Israeli strike against Iran. US-led naval drill 
DEBKAfile Special Report
April 2, 2012, 7:22 PM (GMT+02:00)
Taking part in "Noble Dina" US-Israel-Greek drill
Taking part in "Noble Dina" US-Israel-Greek drill

 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov issued a strong warning against a military attack on Iran Monday, April 2, saying that a pre-emptive strike would violate international law. His comments, made during a visit to Armenia, stopped short of threatening (the US and/or Israel) of consequences. DEBKAfile: Moscow and Tehran suspect that the US- Israeli-Greek air-naval exercise codenamed Noble Dina which is in progress across an unusually broad stretch of E. Mediterranean is meant to rehearse war action in the Persian Gulf.

 

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